US-Pakistan Relations at a Cross Road – The Current Status and Outlook for the Future

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Context

In this article PoliTact takes a look at the events of last couple of days, which have culminated in to closing of one of the supply routes for the coalition forces in Afghanistan, passing through Khyber Pass. NATO and Pakistan have initiated a joint investigation in to repeated incursions by coalition gunships. Details of what unfolded remain murky, as has happened during similar events in the past. However, one or some of these cross-border incursions appear to have turned in to attacks on two Pakistani outposts, resulting in the death of three Frontier Constabulary (FC) soldiers and wounding of several others. These incidents have to be understood in the larger context of the tussles of global balance of power.

In our more recent analysis, PoliTact had pointed out that US-Pakistan relations were likely to deteriorate. However, now that is indeed what has happened, we want to present how this conclusion was reached, and what to expect next. We will refer to a number of PoliTact assessments to help understand the nature of Afghan conflict and to decipher the interests of key stakeholders. Moreover, as is our methodology, to demonstrate how the geopolitics of the AfPak region, is greatly impacted by what happens in other areas of the world. Therefore, it’s critical to interpret these global events and their significance for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

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